Nonparametric Bayesian inference for reversible multidimensional diffusions

Abstract

We study nonparametric Bayesian models for reversible multidimensional diffusions with periodic drift. For continuous observation paths, reversibility is exploited to prove a general posterior contraction rate theorem for the drift gradient vector field under approximation-theoretic conditions on the induced prior for the invariant measure. The general theorem is applied to Gaussian priors and p-exponential priors, which are shown to converge to the truth at the optimal nonparametric rate over Sobolev smoothness classes in any dimension.