Non-OPEC Conventional Production: Decline Analysis, Implications and Outlook

Abstract

Prediction of oil production decline rates is a vital task for oil fields development strategies, upstream investment opportunities, future production plans, and global oil market balance. The strategic question to be addressed in the oil market analysis is, how much new oil production capacity is required to be added to bridge the expected supply gap resulting from the production decline of the existing oil producing fields? This paper analyzes non-OPEC conventional production decline, develops supply gap outlook, estimates the required additional capacity, discusses the factors impacting the production decline, and presents key policy implications. The paper shows that non-OPEC conventional production decline annually at 3.5% excluding ramping-up fields, and 2.5% including non-declining producers. The supply gap due to this decline will be 4.4 MMBD in 2023 under the current production and economic conditions, where an additional production capacity of 8.1 MMBD by 2030 is required to maintain the 2017 production.