Abstract
This paper sets out a framework for modeling causal or predictive dynamic systems and is concerned with bridging the gap between the theory and practice of nonmonotonic temporal reasoning. The central result is a nonmonotonic reasoning methodology that subsumes Shoham's chronological ignorance formalism for causal theories. The new formalism uses an extension of Reiter's default logic and, unlike chronological ignorance, the approach is proof-theoretic. This leads to a simple proof procedure based on classical deduction. We suggest several improvements over Shoham's approach, including removing the need for a modal or other epistemic logic. The result is a simple framework for predictive modeling that can be implemented using a standard theorem prover. To illustrate this framework declarative models are developed for two small assembly processes.
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