Abstract
Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) are the most common malignancies worldwide and are, worryingly, increasing in incidence. However, data in the literature on NMSC specific mortality are scarce, because these tumors are excluded from most mortality registries. The main objective of this study is to analyze NMSC’s mortality rates and use them to generate a predictive model for the coming years in Spain. Data on mid-year population and death certificates for the period 1979–2019 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. The Nordpred program (Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway) within statistical program R was used to calculate mortality adjusted rates, as well as the mortality projection with an age-period-cohort model. This is the first study to report a prediction about NMSC mortality in the next years. According to our findings, the number of NMSC deaths in older people will grow in both sexes, especially in those older than >85 years old (y.o.). The age-specific mortality rates of NMSC will tend to stabilize or gradually decrease, with the exception of women between 75–79 y.o., who will present a slight increase at the end of the period. Early prevention and screening of NMSC specifically oriented to this population might change this tendency.
Highlights
IntroductionNon-melanoma skin cancers consist of the most common tumors worldwide and their prevalence is higher than the sum of all other cancers combined [1]
The present study reports for the first time a prediction of Non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSC) mortality for the coming years in Spain
To improve our ability to predict mortality trends in the near future, it is desirable that death certificates become uniform between different countries. This is the first study to report a prediction about NMSC mortality in the years in
Summary
Non-melanoma skin cancers consist of the most common tumors worldwide and their prevalence is higher than the sum of all other cancers combined [1]. This group of tumors includes common malignancies such as basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and rare tumors such as Merkel cell carcinoma or atypical fibroxanthoma. Mortality in this NMSC group has been considered low, especially in the case of BCC. Mortality from SCC has increased significantly in recent years, especially in immunocompromised or elderly patients [2]
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