Nonlinear tree growth dynamics predict resilience to disturbance

Abstract

Following a disturbance, why does one tree survive while another dies? Physiological mechanisms may explain varying responses to disturbance between different tree species, but fewer studies have investigated conspecific variation in resilience to forest disturbance. We propose that a dynamic signal found in trees may provide clues to their post‐disturbance fate. Specifically, linear versus nonlinear growth dynamics of a tree may be an indicator of its likelihood to survive a disturbance. Here, we investigate stands of red oak (Quercus rubra L.) that experienced disturbances in the form of drought and insect attack. Earlier work indicated that oaks dying during these disturbances had faster growth rates in their first years of life, but there was no obvious difference in canopy status, size, age, or microsite habitat between trees that survived and those that died. To investigate potential differences in growth dynamics between these trees, we quantified radial growth of individual trees and used two forecasting models to classify tree growth dynamics as linear or nonlinear. Trees were classified as healthy, declining, or dying based on crown cover, and dynamic patterns of growth were related to these health classifications. Contrary to expectations, we found healthy Q. rubra were significantly more likely to exhibit nonlinear growth dynamics relative to declining and dying trees. The drivers of this effect remain unclear, but nonlinear growth dynamics in healthy trees may represent an enhanced ability to benefit from resource pulses, in turn promoting greater resilience. Our work suggests that forecasting models offer a means of predicting tree survival during forest disturbances and thus represent an increasingly valuable tool as forest disturbances increase in frequency and severity.