Nonlinear System Simulation and Forecasting of Regional Technology Innovation Using System Dynamics Method

Xi Zeng,Wenyu Li,Meirong Zhou,Lianbing Deng

doi:10.1109/access.2021.3100130

Xi Zeng, Wenyu Li + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2021.3100130

Copy DOI

Abstract

This study analyzed complex causal feedback loops in Regional Technology Innovation (RTI) system and established a system dynamics (SD) model of RTI. Taking China Guangdong Pilot Free Trade Zone as a sample, and running the model in VENSIM, it shows high fitting precision and good extrapolating performance. The simulation gives out the future trends of RTI, FCD, ATD and IPR royalties international trade of the region. This study proposed an effective model of RTI, and more importantly, it points out the type, direction and magnitude of the effects caused by IPR policy in RTI system. This SD model can also be used in policy effect simulation in the future.

Highlights

Current research on regional technology innovation (RTI) can involve many aspects[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]
There are two quite controversial issues about RTI: One major issue is the relationship between economic globalization and RTI, mainly the discussion on the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) on RTI
The purpose of this study is to establish a system dynamics (SD) simulation model to describe the dynamic behaviours of RTI system under the influence of FDI, OFDI and IPR protection, so as to help researchers and policy-makers understand the complexity in RTI system more deeply and comprehensively

Summary

Introduction

Current research on regional technology innovation (RTI) can involve many aspects[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]. Literatures indicate that RTI is a system which contains complex causal connections and effects. There are a large number of literatures on international technology spillovers, and the perspectives and indicators are quite different. Some studies found that the effect of FDI technology spillover was not always significant, and the impacts are contingent on regional conditions, yet some found that FDI did not improve the local innovation ability, but had an inhibiting effect[9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16]. Is IPR protection really improving the RTI, especially in regions that lag in technology? The answers given by current literatures are quite different[17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24]

Objectives

Methods

Conclusion