Nonlinear stress wave generation model as an earthquake precursor

Abstract

A network of vertical static pendulums (tiltmeters) has been in operation in Central Europe since July 2007. Hundred and eighty three seismic events of magnitude 7 and greater have occurred worldwide (EMSC) during the ten-year period. Several kinds of tilt anomalies were recognised within days up to months before the mainshocks. The most typical anomaly was a sudden tilting, parallel with the geologic structure, where the pendulum was installed. Based on the observations, we are proposing an asperity model, explaining the generation of so called “stress waves” before the mainshocks. Such stress waves of very low frequency (i.e. periods of days up to the first months) could be detected anywhere on the globe, especially on active geological structures, parallel with the fault, where a mainshock can happen. The observations suggest that we could estimate that part of the global fault system, which generates the detected stress wave, and which reaches the critical state. The estimation can be performed according to the amplitude of the stress wave, compared with stress waves detected on other structures of different orientations. According to the length of the stress wave (its period) and the tilt amplitude, it could be possible to estimate the magnitude of the mainshock.