Non-linear response of vegetation to coherent warming over northern high latitudes

Abstract

This study evaluates the large-scale changes in vegetation greenness at northern high latitudes (>60° N) using satellite-measured normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and station-merged temperature, precipitation and soil moisture for the period 1982–2008. During this 27-year period, although coherent warming trends were observed at most of the high latitudes, changes in the NDVI showed apparent spatial and temporal heterogeneity. In particular, changes in the hemispheric mean NDVI increased until 1997, but decreased thereafter. Maximum covariance analysis, which is a statistical method to detect large-scale covariability between two variables over time, reveals significant relationships between NDVI and soil moisture (and/or precipitation) in the regions of negative NDVI trends. These results further suggest that local moisture availability also plays a considerable role in the large-scale changes in vegetation as well as coherent warming over the northern high latitudes.