Nonlinear mixed-effects branch diameter and length models for natural Dahurian larch (Larix gmelini) forest in northeast China

Abstract

We developed the generalized branch diameter and length models using the multi-level nonlinear mixed-effects techniques for the natural Dahurian larch ( Larix gmelini ) forest in northeast China. Dahurian larch (Larix gmelini) is the most commercially cultivated timber species in northeastern China due to its ecological prevalence and its superior wood attribute. However, its timber quality was largely driven by the crown architecture, i.e., the number, size and distribution of branches. The majority of branch-level models in the literature are focused on planted forests, which have substantially different crown architecture than that grown in natural mixed forests. Therefore, the goal of this investigation was to develop branch diameter and length models for Dahurian larch that are grown in natural mixed forests. A multi-level nonlinear mixed-effects model technique, including the fixed-effects, random-effects, variance functions and correlation structures, was employed to develop the branch growth models. The results suggested that the cumulative branch diameter and length were both increased with the increases of branch depth into the crown. Diameter at breast height (DBH) had significant positive influences on the branch size; however, tree height (HT) produced negative influences on the branch size, i.e., larger DBH and smaller HT could lead to larger branch size. Model fitting and validation results confirmed that we should avoid developing over-complex models from the perspective of application. As for the branch diameter and length models in our study, addressing the stand and tree level effects as random component were quite reliable and accurate for predicting the branch growth process of Dahurian larch in northeastern China.