Nonlinear interactions of land carbon cycle feedbacks in Earth System Models.

Abstract

Carbon cycle feedbacks were often quantified through the carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedbacks with the assumption of no significant interaction between the two feedbacks in most previous studies. Here we calculated the strength of the interactions between the two responses using simulations of models participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We found that the nonlinear interaction contributed 11% of the land-atmosphere carbon exchange on average with large intermodel variation (from -20% to +162%). This nonlinear interaction is largely driven by the pattern of net primary production (NPP), with shifts in heterotrophic respiration that dampen the overall positive interactions from NPP. Photosynthetic rate per unit leaf area alone cannot adequately explain a wide variation of interactions in global NPP simulated by CMIP6models. Plant respiration and processes that regulate leaf area are also important contributors to the interactions. Dominant factors that induce carbon-concentration and carbon-climate interactions are highly variable among models. One of those dominant factors is nutrient limitation. Using additional simulations of ACCESS-ESM1.5 that include both nitrogen and phosphorus limitation, we found that the estimated interactions by ACCESS-ESM1.5 with or without nutrient limitations covered the large intermodel variations among the CMIP6models. It remains largely unknown how nutrient limitation complicates ecosystem's responses to simultaneously CO2 fertilization and warming at the global scale. Our modeling results point to a potential important role of nutrients, especially phosphorus on the nonlinear interactions. Yet, more studies are needed on ecosystem responses to concurrent changes in nutrient availability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and warming.