Non-linear impact of the built environment on metro commuter flows before and after the COVID-19 outbreak: A case study in Guangzhou

Abstract

The built environment is a crucial factor influencing subway commuting. However, the extent to which the built environment affects metro travel during the COVID-19 pandemic remains under explored. In particular, people's travel patterns and destinations might have changed during the pandemic, influenced by the built environment. The degree to which these influences differ from those in normal circumstances has scarcely been studied. This study investigates the non-linear effects of the built environment on metro commuters within an 800-m radius of subway stations. Analysis of mobile signal data from Guangzhou Metro Line 1 showed that the importance of the built environment was 81.69% and 70.06% before and after the outbreak, respectively. Based on the threshold effects of the built environment on subway passenger flows before and after the pandemic, this study determined the immediate needs of commuters for the built environment after the outbreak. This information can guide planning strategies around subway stations facing public health emergencies. This study highlights the non-linear impact of the built environment on subway passenger flows after an outbreak. Thus, the number of parking lots, the proportion of medical facilities and the distance to the central business district are urgent demands for subway passengers after the outbreak.