Abstract
Changes in the demand for bulk cargo will have a significant impact on the industrial structure and transportation development planning, and trains and cargo ships are the main means of bulk cargo transportation. Accurately predicting the volume of bulk cargo transportation can be used to support transportation system management, such as operation planning and route selection design. This study uses the Elman model to conduct empirical analysis, predict the changing trend of bulk cargo transportation, and provide data reference for the formulation of transportation development plans.
Highlights
Compared with other modes of transportation, railways are minimally affected by geography and climate, and have the advantages of strong adaptability, strong transportation capacity, fast transportation speed, low transportation cost, high safety factor and low environmental pollution
Changes in demand for bulk goods will have a significant impact on the industrial structure and logistics development planning [3]
The freight structure of coal transportation in 2025 shows the characteristics of port (56.77%)> railway (43.23%); the freight structure of oil and gas transportation shows the characteristics of port (91.10%)> railway (8.90%); the freight structure of metal ore transportation shows the characteristics of port (85.76%)> railway (14.24%)
Summary
Compared with other modes of transportation, railways are minimally affected by geography and climate, and have the advantages of strong adaptability, strong transportation capacity, fast transportation speed, low transportation cost, high safety factor and low environmental pollution. Railways are responsible for most of China's long-distance cargo transportation and are one of the main modes of transportation in China's comprehensive transportation system [1]. According to related literature [4]-[7], neural network with its strong self-learning ability has a good performance in the forecasting accuracy of freight volume. This study summarizes the categories of bulk goods transported by railways and ports through related research [8]. Categories of bulk goods transported by railways and ports are slightly different. The research of railway freight volume in this study selects data from 1999 to 2018 in the 20 years. The use of ports for the transportation of bulk cargo has risen late, so the port freight volume selected the 10-year data from 2010 to for research and forecast analysis.
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