Nonlinear Ensemble Deep Learning Model for Energy Consumption Prediction with Bayesian Optimization

Abstract

Accurate prediction of electric energy consumption is crucial for efficient load dispatching, energy utilization, and grid operation. Traditional statistical and classical machine learning methods struggle with the nonlinear nature of energy consumption data, often leading to higher prediction errors. Additionally, deep learning models using a single approach face challenges such as convergence to local minima and poor generalization. This paper proposes a nonlinear ensemble deep learning model for residential energy consumption prediction, incorporating Bayesian optimization for hyperparameter tuning. The model combines Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), and 1D Convolutional Neural Networks (1D-CNN), leveraging their powerful nonlinear feature learning capabilities. A k-means clustering approach is used to preprocess and reduce variability in the data, enhancing the ensemble model's performance. The ensemble model was tested on real energy consumption data from two districts in Addis Ababa, showing significant improvements in prediction accuracy with lower MAE, RMSE, and MAPE values compared to single models and un-clustered data. The integration of clustering and Bayesian optimization further enhanced model generalizability and minimized overfitting, demonstrating the effectiveness of a nonlinear approach in capturing complex energy consumption patterns.