Nonlinear effect on the East Asian summer monsoon due to two coexisting anthropogenic forcing factors in eastern China: an AGCM study

Abstract

Two anthropogenic forcing factors dominate in eastern China: aerosols and urban land cover. Usually, aerosols induce surface cooling while urban land cover causes surface warming. It is important to explore whether or not a nonlinear effect may result from the coexistence of these two opposing effects, and to what extent such nonlinear effect may become significant in affecting the climate change in East Asia. In this study, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 (CAM5.1) coupled with the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is employed to investigate the nonlinear effect on the East Asian summer monsoon due to the coexistence of aerosols and urban land cover. The anthropogenic forcing can be studied by including only aerosol emissions, only urban land cover, or a combination of the two in eastern China. The nonlinear effect obtained in CAM5.1 is evident in eastern China to offset the urbanization effect. Large-scale atmospheric response produces anomalous upward motion and increases total cloud amount and precipitation. This increased total cloud amount and its associated negative shortwave cloud forcing in turn significantly decrease surface air temperature and cool the troposphere, especially in northern China, resulting in a reduced land–sea thermal contrast, which acts to weaken the prevailing southwesterly wind over the Yangtze River Valley and southwestern China and to enhance the wind over the northern South China Sea. The nonlinear effect also indirectly excites strong convection over southern China, leading to a pronounced increase in summer precipitation.