Abstract

Although Wiener process models with the consideration of uncertainties, which are nonlinearity, random effects, and measurement errors, have been developed for lifetime prediction in the accelerated degradation test (ADT), they fail to describe the real degradation process because these models assume that the drift parameter correlates with the applied stress, while the diffusion parameter is constant. This paper put forward a nonlinear doubly Wiener constant-stress accelerated degradation model, where both diffusion and drift parameters were compatible with the applied stress according to the acceleration factor constant principle. When degradation data were available, we obtained the unknown parameters by applying a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) algorithm in the constant-stress ADT (CSADT) model taking uncertainties into account. In addition, the proposed model’s effectiveness was validated through an illustrative example, and an application to the traveling wave tube (TWT) was carried out to demonstrate the superiority of our model in practical applications.

Highlights

  • Due to time constraints and cost, close attention has been paid to acquiring reliable information from field data with minimal effort, especially those products with high reliability and longevity

  • Given that performance data can be monitored either with or without failure, degradation data could offer more reliability analysis compared to Accelerated life test (ALT), including providing more reliable information and more credible reliability estimation, and the basis for stronger extrapolation and prognosis estimation, in which cases using degradation modeling and analysis with accelerated degradation test (ADT) may be more appropriate

  • Based on the different stress loading methods, ADT can be divided into constant-stress ADT (CSADT), step-stress ADT (SSADT), and progressive-stress ADT (PSADT)

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Summary

Introduction

Due to time constraints and cost, close attention has been paid to acquiring reliable information from field data with minimal effort, especially those products with high reliability and longevity. Given the variation among units, Tang, et al [15] introduced a random variable into an acceleration model to characterize the random effects and performed a nonlinear analysis of LED CASDT data under current stress using the Wiener process model with a time-scale-transform. A nonlinear doubly Wiener degradation model of CSADT with the principle of constant acceleration factor consistency was proposed, taking uncertainties into accounts, such as nonlinearity and measurement errors, we only regarded the drift parameter as random values to represent the random effects, similar to [17,18,19,20].

Deducing Relation of Parameters in the ADT for Nonlinear Wiener Model
Modeling and Parameter Estimation in CSADT
ADT with Random Effects
Acceleration Degradation Process Modeling with Measurement Errors
Parameter Estimation
Conclusions
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