Abstract
Several noninvasive models have been developed to identify new-onset diabetics at higher risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, they need external validation before implementation. This study validated one such model (Boursi model) among a cohort of new-onset diabetics. A bivariate analysis of the model's components was done between patients who developed PDAC and type 2 diabetics. The model performance was assessed through receiver-operative characteristic curve analysis. Patients with PDAC had significantly lower total cholesterol and alkaline phosphatase at diagnosis of diabetes (P < 0.01). They were observed losing body mass index (BMI) preceding diagnosis (ΔBMI = -0.42 kg/m2, P < 0.01). The model's area under the curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.88). The cutoff that maximized the Youden index was at 0.8%. At this cutoff, the sensitivity was 75%, specificity was 80%, and the prevalence of pancreatic cancer increased from 0.19% at baseline to 0.69%. Boursi model enriches the prevalence of PDAC among new-onset diabetics.
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