Abstract
In this study, we performed stationary and non-stationary frequency analysis of daily rainfall extreme series based on climate change scenarios by CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5) 8 GCMs (General Circulation Models). We extracted the annual maximum daily rainfall and it was conducted tendency test for the abnormality verification. The data consisted of 30 sets according to 30 years in units and sequential to year and to derive each set rank, the number of rainfall occurrences over 80 mm and the summer rainfall were calculated. For the stationary and non-stationary frequency analysis, Gumbel distribution was adopted and average precipitation, location and scale parameters were calculated for each set. As a result of the analysis, it is considered that the stationary frequency analysis in RCP 4.5 and the non-stationary frequency analysis in RCP 8.5 are valid, and it is expected that various scenarios will be reviewed in the near future. The results of this study are expected to be useful for the future climate change policies. Keywords: CMIP5, GCMs, Gumbel, Non-stationary Frequency Analysis, Probability Precipitation
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