Non-Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation for Cyber-Induced Dependent Failures in Composite Power System Reliability Evaluation

Abstract

Cyber-induced dependent failures are important to be considered in composite system reliability evaluation. Because of the complexity and dimensionality, Monte Carlo simulation is a preferred method for composite system reliability evaluation. The non-sequential Monte Carlo or sampling generally requires less computational and storage resources than sequential techniques and is generally preferred for large systems where components are independent or only a limited dependency exists. However, cyber-induced events involve dependent failures, making it difficult to use sampling methods. The difficulties of using sampling with dependent failures are discussed and a solution is proposed. The basic idea is to generate a representative state space from which states can be sampled. The probabilities of representative state space provide an approximation of the joint distribution and are generated by a sequential simulation in this paper but it may be possible to find alternative means of achieving this objective. The proposed method preserves the dependent features of cyber-induced events and also improves the efficiency. Although motivated by cyber-induced failures, the technique can be used for other types of dependent failures as well. A comparative study between a purely sequential methodology and the proposed method is presented on an extended Roy Billinton Test System.