Non-revenue water ratio prediction with serial triple diagram model

Burak Kızılöz,Eyüp Şişman

doi:10.2166/ws.2021.173

Burak Kızılöz, Eyüp Şişman

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2021.173

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Abstract

Abstract Water administrations attempt to control the Non-Revenue Water Ratio (NRWR) values in sustainable and well-performing water distribution infrastructures. In this respect, the NRWR value prediction through appropriate models over a small number of controllable variables is significant. The collection, monitoring, and predictions of data on variables that are used in the NRWR calculations are not practical and required significant time besides financial resources. In this study, the NRWR predictions have been made through the suggested method over three parameters. The model prediction accuracies, in the literature obtained by using the Triple Diagram Model (TDM) over two parameters, have been increased through the Serial Triple Diagram Model (STDM) suggested in this study. This method shows that better predictions are possible in the NRWR modeling. Thanks to the model applications developed in this study, water administrations can make predictions with the least error (less than 10% relative error) and certain variables, according to the characteristics of each water distribution network.

Highlights

The International Water Association (IWA) makes important contributions to the non-revenue water (NRW) issue through numerous conferences, workshops, and publications every year
For better model performance, the Triple Diagram Model (TDM) chart is obtained by considering the model errors of the initial model setup and of a third variable that is effective in Non-Revenue Water Ratio (NRWR) prediction with higher performance
The TDM structure with two inputs and one output is converted by the proposed approach into a new model with four inputs in total coupled with the error terms in the initial model

Summary

Introduction

The International Water Association (IWA) makes important contributions to the non-revenue water (NRW) issue through numerous conferences, workshops, and publications every year Despite all these efforts, the water loss rate is high and especially the awareness level of the water utilities in most developing countries has not reached the expected level yet. The production and operating costs increase due to these losses Such problems have different consequences, from service disruption to water quality deterioration. For this reason, the studies on WL in water distribution systems (WDSs) are quite important (Kanakoudis & Tsitsifli 2010; Kanakoudis et al 2015; Kanakoudis et al 2016)

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Conclusion