Non-probabilistic Bayesian update method for model validation

Abstract

• The concepts of interval escape rate and interval coverage rate are first proposed. • Establish non-probabilistic Bayesian update method. • A systematic model validation procedure is presented. Model validation is the principal strategy to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of computational simulations. A systematic model validation procedure including uncertainty quantification, model update and prediction is described based on a non-probabilistic interval model. The crucial technical challenge in model validation is limited data, thus the non-probabilistic interval model is adopted to describe uncertain parameters. To establish the model update formula, the concepts of the interval escape rate and interval coverage rate are first described. Then, not only can the possibility of failure be estimated but also the credibility of the possibility of failure based on the proposed model validation method. The data in the validation experiment are used to update the credibility of each interval model, while the data from the accreditation experiment are used to conduct a final check of the validated models. To demonstrate that the proposed method can be applied to model validation problems successfully, a validation benchmark, the static frame challenge problem, is implemented. In addition, a practical aviation structure engineering validation problem is described. The results of these two validation problems show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model validation method. The theoretical framework proposed in this paper is also suitable for model validation of computational simulations in other research fields.