Non-parametric regional VTEC modeling with Multivariate Adaptive Regression B-Splines

Abstract

In this work Multivariate Adaptive Regression B-Splines (BMARS) is applied to regional spatio-temporal mapping of the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) using ground based Global Positioning System (GPS) observations. BMARS is a non-parametric regression technique that utilizes compactly supported tensor product B-splines as basis functions, which are automatically obtained from the observations. The algorithm uses a scale-by-scale model building strategy that searches for B-splines at each scale fitting adequately to the data and provides smoother approximations than the original Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS). It is capable to process high dimensional problems with large amounts of data and can easily be parallelized. The real test data is collected from 32 ground based GPS stations located in North America. The results are compared numerically and visually with both the regional VTEC modeling generated via original MARS using piecewise-linear basis functions and another regional VTEC modeling based on B-splines.