Non-linear method of information risk assessment based on the group method of data handling

Abstract

The rapid growth of digitalization of all life aspects leads to the emergence of new forms and methods of waging wars –information confrontation both in the economic, political and military characteristics of world politics and economics. Another trend is an increase in the number of attacks on critical infrastructure and strategic industrial facilities, where malicious systems bouts can affect life-supporting systems and lead to the emergence of global man-made disasters. This became specifically massive during the Russian aggression on Ukraine. Thus, information security risks are among the three most likely risks that significantly threaten national security of Ukraine. Hence, the fight against information attacks is a key task of the state. It should be noted that in order to develop a rational system for combating information attacks, it is extremely important to identify the most significant threats. And this can be done if an effective information risk assessment system is made. The rationale of the article is based on the fact that the issue of assessing information risks is becoming increasingly significant both for business and the state as a whole. Today, the development and effective operation of information security systems is impossible without analyzing and managing the risks of such a system. After all, the main task of this field is the impartial identification of threats and assessment of the most significant information risks for the organization, which further allows solving the scientific and practical problem of minimizing information risks. Existing methods and techniques for assessing information risks mostly use linear approaches, which can lead to significant methodological errors. Therefore, the application of non-linear methods for assessing information risks is relevant both in theory and in practice, which is the scientific problem of the article. The subject of the article is to develop methodological provisions of a non-linear method for assessing information risks, and the goal is to increase the reliability and adequacy of models for calculating information risks. It should be noted that the proposed method of non-linear assessment of information risks has sufficiently relevant statistical indicators for assessing the adequacy of the obtained non-linear functionality, which can be the basis to conduct assessment of information risks in advance, counteract and eliminate them. Key words: national security, cyber security, information risks, group method of data handling.