Non-inferior solutions for virtual water strategies: Model development and a case study in northern China

Abstract

Despite the effectiveness of virtual water strategies for water resource conservation, this approach has not yet been widely adopted in real-world water resource management. One major reason is that previous research on this approach emphasized its water conservation effects, but understated its economic impacts. In the present study, we combined a computable general equilibrium model with Pareto optimality analysis to establish an analytical framework. This framework can help planners to quantify the trade-offs between water resource conservation and economic development, and identify non-inferior solutions for virtual water strategies. We used the Luanhe River Basin as a case study, and considered three strategy sub-modes (promote-imports, limit-production, and dual-policy) and five water-intensive agricultural sub-sectors (cotton, oilseeds, melons and fruits, grains, and vegetables). We found that although the virtual water strategy can improve water conservation, it has negative effects on economic development; compared with the promote-imports modes, the limit-production and dual-policy modes were non-inferior choices; cotton was an inferior agricultural sub-sector to implement the virtual water strategy.