Abstract
Deforestation rates have declined substantially across the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA) over the period from 2000–2017. However, reductions in fire, aerosol and carbon dioxide have been far less significant than deforestation, even when accounting for inter-annual variability in precipitation. Our observations and analysis support a decoupling between fire and deforestation that has exacerbated forest degradation in the BLA. Basing aerosol and carbon dioxide emissions on deforestation rates, without accounting for forest degradation will bias these important climate and ecosystem-health parameters low, both now and in the future. Recent increases in deforestation rate since 2014 will enhance such degradation, particularly during drought-conditions, increasing emissions of aerosol and greenhouse gases. Given Brazil’s committed Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement, failure to account for forest degradation fires will paint a false picture of prior progress and potentially have profound implications for both regional and global climate.
Highlights
Amazonia is one of the world’s most important tropical regions and is suffering substantial pressures from human occupation, expansion of agricultural activities and climate change
Details on the data and methods used can be found later in the manuscript after the discussion section. This includes the calculation of precipitation-adjusted trends in fire parameters, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and carbon dioxide emissions, which aim to account for inter-annual variability in rainfall across the region to better understand the non-meteorological drivers of fire
The spatial distribution of deforestation and fire count tend to overlap each other across the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA) as shown in Fig. 1, there are some divergences e.g. significant deforestation has occurred in central Pará but without clear enhancements in fire count as well as burned area
Summary
Amazonia is one of the world’s most important tropical regions and is suffering substantial pressures from human occupation, expansion of agricultural activities and climate change. This is the first study to investigate trends in aerosol and carbon dioxide emissions from the BLA and place them in the context of the observed changes in precipitation, deforestation, fire count and burned area.
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