Non-Conscious vs. Deliberate Dynamic Decision-Making—A Pilot Experiment

Andreas Größler,Jac Vennix,Etiënne Rouwette

doi:10.3390/systems4010013

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of non-conscious vs. deliberate ways of making decisions in a dynamic decision-making task. An experimental setting is used to study this question; three experimental groups are distinguished: immediate decision-making (only very limited time for deliberate cognitive processing), considerate decision-making (relatively long time for deliberate cognitive processing), and distracted decision-making (time for non-conscious cognitive processing only). As experimental stimulus, a simulator based on the Kaibab Plateau model was employed. With a sample size of more than 100 experimental participants, group differences are not significant for most data examined. Implications comprise the formulation of a framework to guide further research. The value of this paper lies in the fact that it connects to a recent discussion in psychology and transfers it to a domain in the core interest of the system community: decision-making in situations with dynamic complexity. Furthermore, it offers a range of improvement points for potential follow-up studies.

Highlights

The motivation for this paper came from the question of whether we—as researchers of decision-making—would recommend that managers decide “straight from the gut” [1] or “don’t trust your gut” [2]
In accordance with the theme of this special issue in dynamic decision-making in controlled experiments, we wanted to investigate the effectiveness of deliberate vs. non-conscious cognitive processing on decision-making in a dynamic context and derive first insights on the domain of dynamic decision-making that subsequently could be used for advanced studies
We explore whether non-conscious deliberation of the situation is superior to deliberate consideration in dynamic decision-making with the help of a pilot laboratory experiment with three experimental groups

Summary

Introduction

The motivation for this paper came from the question of whether we—as researchers of decision-making—would recommend that managers decide “straight from the gut” [1] or “don’t trust your gut” [2]. Conscious ways of making decisions in a dynamic decision-making task. We wanted to initially ask the question of whether humans perform better when they have substantial time available to think about a dynamic problem, or when time for deliberate consideration is limited. In the light of some recent findings in psychology, and according to some anecdotal evidence, it seems that non-conscious forms of decision-making are more effective than deliberate forms more often than expected by proponents of rational problem solving. These findings were often achieved when static and single tasks had been involved. In accordance with the theme of this special issue in dynamic decision-making in controlled experiments, we wanted to investigate the effectiveness of deliberate vs. non-conscious cognitive processing on decision-making in a dynamic context and derive first insights on the domain of dynamic decision-making that subsequently could be used for advanced studies

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion