Nomograms for predicting prognostic value of combined neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and SCC-Ag in locally advanced cervical cancer.

Abstract

Accumulating evidence supports the important role of inflammation in tumorigenesis and progression. Squamous cell carcinoma-associated antigen (SCC-Ag) is a tumor marker widely used to predict the prognosis of patients with cervical squamous cell carcinoma. This paper explored the predictive value of combined detection of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) to SCC-Ag for prognosis in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer (LACC). A retrospective analysis was conducted on 190 LACC patients who underwent concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) from January 2012 to December 2016. NLR and SCC-Ag were analyzed before treatment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was employed to determine the optimal cutoff point for NLR and SCC-Ag. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox regression analysis were performed to assess their prognostic values. Nomograms were established to predict progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), and the Harrell's concordance index (C-index) was introduced to evaluate the accuracy of predictions. The optimal cutoff values for SCC-Ag and NLR were 3.25 ng/mL and 2.52, respectively. Patients with SCC-Ag >3.25 ng/mL and NLR >2.52 were significantly associated with decreased PFS and OS. Multivariate analysis indicated that SCC-Ag and NLR were independent prognostic factors for PFS (P=0.022 and P=0.004, respectively) and OS (P=0.031 and P=0.001, respectively). The area under the curve of SCC-Ag, NLR and their combination to predict PFS and OS of LACC were 0.688, 0.623, 0.708 and 0.684, 0.658, 0.723, respectively. C-index of nomograms based on PFS and OS were 0.725 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.653-0.797] and 0.731 (95% CI: 0.658-0.804), respectively. The combination of SCC-Ag and NLR could provide a better predictive prognosis than SCC-Ag or NLR alone, and nomograms based on PFS and OS can be recommended as practical models for evaluating the prognosis of LACC patients.