Nomogram predicts risk of perineural invasion based on serum biomarkers for pancreatic cancer

Abstract

BackgroundPancreatic cancer is a fatal tumor, and the status of perineural invasion (PNI) of pancreatic cancer was positively related to poor prognosis including overall survival and recurrence-free survival. This study aims to develop and validate a predictive model based on serum biomarkers to accurately predict the perineural invasion.Materials and methodsThe patients from No.924 Hospital of PLA Joint Logistic Support Force were included. The predictive model was developed in the training cohort using logistic regression analysis, and then tested in the validation cohort. The area under curve (AUC), calibration curves and decision curve analysis were used to validate the predictive accuracy and clinical benefits of nomogram.ResultsA nomogram was developed using preoperative total bilirubin, preoperative blood glucose, preoperative CA19-9. It achieved good AUC values of 0.753 and 0.737 in predicting PNI in training and validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves showed nomogram had good uniformity of the practical probability of PNI. Decision curve analyses revealed that the nomogram provided higher diagnostic accuracy and superior net benefit compared to single indicators.ConclusionThe present study constructed and validate a novel nomogram predicted the PNI of resectable PHAC patients with high stability and accuracy. Besides, it could better screen high-risk probability of PNI in these patients, and optimize treatment decision-making.