Abstract
BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to develop an effective nomogram capable of estimating the individual survival outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and compare the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability with other staging systems.MethodsThe nomogram was established based on a retrospective study of 661 patients newly diagnosed with HCC at the Beijing Ditan Hospital (Beijing, China), Capital Medical University, between October 2008 and July 2012. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the previously developed nomogram were assessed by C-index and calibration curves, and were compared to seven current commonly used staging systems. The results were validated, using a bootstrap approach to correct for bias, in a prospective study of 220 patients consecutively enrolled between August 2012 and March 2013.ResultsMultivariate analysis of the primary cohort for survival analysis identified the independent factors to be aspartate aminotransferase, ɣ-glutamyl transpeptidase, white blood cell count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, prothrombin activity, α-fetoprotein, tumor number and size, lymph node metastasis, and portal vein involvement, which were all included to build the nomogram. The calibration curve for predicting the probability of survival showed consistency between the nomogram and the actual observation. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.79–0.82), which was statistically better than that of the Tumor, Node, Metastasis staging (0.71), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging (0.77), Okuda (0.62), Japan Integrated Staging (0.73), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (0.76), Chinese University Prognostic Index (0.68), and the Groupe d’ Etude et de Traitement du Carcinome Hepatocellulaire Prognostic classification (0.65) (p < 0.001 for all). The results were validated in the prospective validation cohort.ConclusionsThe prognostic nomogram resulted in more accurate individualized risk estimates for overall survival in HCC patients.
Highlights
The purpose of this study was to develop an effective nomogram capable of estimating the individual survival outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and compare the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability with other staging systems
The diagnosis of HCC was based on the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) criteria [22]: a histopathologic confirmation, a positive lesion detected by at least 2 different imaging techniques, or a positive lesion detected by 1 imaging technique combined with α-fetoprotein (AFP) >400 ng/ml
The baseline characteristics of the primary and validation cohorts are listed in Table 1. 356 (40.4%) of the patients had survived, whereas 525 (59.6%) of the patients had died by the end of the 3-year follow-up
Summary
The purpose of this study was to develop an effective nomogram capable of estimating the individual survival outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and compare the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability with other staging systems. The TNM staging only accounts for tumor-related indicators reflecting the tumor morphology and pathology, without taking the liver functional features into consideration [13]. These staging systems only serve to stratify patients into various groups with variable outcomes, but could not estimate the individual survival outcomes of HCC
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