Nomogram Prediction Model of Hypernatremia on Mortality in Critically Ill Patients

Abstract

To investigate the value of hypernatremia in the intensive care unit (ICU) for the risk prediction of mortality in severe patients. Clinical data of critically ill patients admitted to the ICU of Beijing Friendship Hospital, were collected for retrospective analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to analyze the influencing factors. Nomograms predicting the mortality were constructed with R software and validated with repeated sampling. A total of 442 cases were eligible for this study. Hypernatremia within 48 hours of ICU admission, change in sodium concentration (CNa+) within 48 hours, septic shock, APACHE II score, hyperlactatemia within 48 hours, use of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) within 48 hours, and the use of mechanical ventilation (MV) within 48 hours of ICU admission were all identified as independent risk factors for death within 28 days of ICU admission. These predictors were included in a nomogram of 28-day mortality in severe patients, which was constructed using R software. The nomogram could predict the individualized risk of 28-day mortality based on the above factors. The model has better discrimination and accuracy and has high clinical application value.