Nomogram model on estimating the risk of pressure injuries for hospitalized patients in the intensive care unit

Abstract

ObjectivesThis study aimed to build and validate a nomogram model to estimate the risk of pressure injuries in intensive care unit patients. DesignMulticenter prospective cohort study. Setting33 tertiary hospitals in the Gansu Province, China. Measurements and main resultsThis study included 6420 patients between April 2021 to October 2022 from an information platform of pressure injury risk management called the “Long Hu Hui.” Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified pressure injury risk factors to be included in the nomogram. The resulting nomogram was tested for calibration discrimination, and clinical usefulness. Of the included patients, 77 developed pressure injuries, representing an incidence rate of 1.2 %. Analysis of binary logistic regression revealed that the estimation nomogram included weight loss greater than 5 kg in the last three months, pneumotomy cannula, thoracic catheter, isoproterenol, norepinephrine, abnormal skin color, ruptured erythema, stroke, increased body temperature and nonspecific patients (specific patients include paralysis, unconsciousness, dementia, forced body position). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the training cohort was 0.806 (95 % CI 0.755–0.857), and the AUC of the text cohort was 0.737 (95 % CI 0.574–0.901). The model has excellent calibration in both the training cohort (H-L test: χ2 = 6.34, P = 0.61) and the text cohort (H-L test: χ2 = 4.50, P = 0.81). Furthermore, the decision curve analysis revealed the preferred net benefit and the threshold probability in the estimation nomogram. ConclusionsThe nomogram model accurately estimated the risk of pressure injuries among intensive care patients, it should be used to inform risk assessment and facilitate early intervention strategies in future practice. Implications for clinical practiceThe nomogram allows intensive care providers to dynamically assess the patient's risk of pressure injuries and to implement more targeted interventions accordingly.