Nomogram model and risk score to predict 5-year risk of progression from prediabetes to diabetes in Chinese adults: Development and validation of a novel model.

Abstract

To develop a personalized nomogram and risk score to predict the 5-year risk of diabetes among Chinese adults with prediabetes. There were 26 018 participants with prediabetes at baseline in this retrospective cohort study. We randomly stratified participants into two cohorts for training (n=12 947) and validation (n=13 071). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model was applied to select the most significant variables among candidate variables. And we further established a stepwise Cox proportional hazards model to screen out the risk factors based on the predictors chosen by the LASSO model. We presented the model with a nomogram. The model's discrimination, clinical use and calibration were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, decision curve and calibration analysis. The associated risk factors were also categorized according to clinical cut-points or tertials to create the diabetes risk score model. Based on the total score, we divided it into four risk categories: low, middle, high and extremely high. We also evaluated our diabetes risk score model's performance. We developed a simple nomogram and risk score that predicts the risk of prediabetes by using the variables age, triglyceride, fasting blood glucose, body mass index, alanine aminotransferase, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and family history of diabetes. The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram was 0.8146 (95% CI 0.8035-0.8258) and 0.8147 (95% CI 0.8035-0.8259) for the training and validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curve showed a perfect fit between predicted and observed diabetes risks at 5 years. Decision curve analysis presented the clinical use of the nomogram, and there was a wide range of alternative threshold probability spectrums. A total risk score of 0 to 2.5, 3 to 4.5, 5 to 7.5 and 8 to 13.5 is associated with low, middle, high and extremely high diabetes risk status, respectively. We developed and validated a personalized prediction nomogram and risk score for 5-year diabetes risk among Chinese adults with prediabetes, identifying individuals at a high risk of developing diabetes. Doctors and other healthcare professionals can easily and quickly use our diabetes score model to assess the diabetes risk status in patients with prediabetes. In addition, the nomogram model and risk score we developed need to be validated in a prospective cohort study.