Nomogram Incorporating Multimodal Transvaginal Ultrasound Assessment at 20 to 24 Weeks' Gestation for Predicting Spontaneous Preterm Delivery in Low-Risk Women.

Abstract

BackgroundThe majority of women who experience spontaneous preterm delivery (SPTD) have low-risk, asymptomatic pregnancies with a cervical length (CL) ≥25mm and no clear risk factors. Despite the fact that cervical elastography is a potential tool for predicting SPTD, there is currently no feasible solution to make a reliable prediction for preventing SPTD.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to construct a nomogram including multimodal transvaginal ultrasound parameters during the second trimester to predict SPTD in low-risk women.MethodsThis multi-center study enrolled 1260 women with singleton pregnancies between 20 and 24 weeks’ gestation. CL and cervical elastography data were obtained when they were undergoing the second-trimester anomaly scan. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression were utilized to screen predictors independently related to SPTD from the maternal characteristics and multimodal ultrasound data. Then construct a nomogram to determine the likelihood of SPTD in pregnant women.ResultsA total of 66 pregnancies in the training cohort (7.8%, 66/842) and 37 pregnancies (8.9%, 37/418) in the validation cohort ended in SPTD. Age, uterine curettage, CL, and strain in the anterior lip of internal os were the independent predictors of SPTD (P < 0.001, < 0.001, = 0.007, and < 0.001, respectively). These predictors constituted a nomogram to predict the probability of SPTD for a pregnant woman in her second trimester. It showed good discrimination (C-index = 0.898 and 0.839), calibration (P = 0.258 and 0.115), and yielded net benefits both in the training and validation cohorts.ConclusionThe nomogram including data of multimodal transvaginal ultrasound at 20 to 24 weeks’ gestation is expected to identify women with SPTD in the low-risk, asymptomatic population.