Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Complications after Endoscopic Foreign Body Removal from the Adult Upper Gastrointestinal Tract.

Abstract

Ingested foreign bodies may become impacted in the upper gastrointestinal tract, requiring endoscopic removal. To establish and validate a nomogram to determine the risk of complications following endoscopic foreign body removal. We retrospectively analyzed the data of 1510 adult patients who underwent endoscopic removal of ingested foreign bodies between January 2019 and December 2022. All participants were randomly allocated in a 7:3 ratio to the training (n = 1057) and validation (n = 453) cohorts. A nomogram for the development of major complications associated with endoscopic foreign body removal was established based on risk factors identified by logistic regression analysis. Four independent risk factors for the development of major complications were identified by multivariate regression analysis: older age, impaction time > 24h, type of foreign body (animal bones and jujube pits), and number of pressure points exerted on the digestive tract wall (one and ≥ two). The nomogram constructed using these factors showed favorable discriminatory values, with an area under the curve of 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.78) in the training cohort and 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.72-0.76) in the validation cohort. Older patients who ingested bones or jujube pits with more pressure points exerted on the digestive tract wall more than 24h earlier should be considered most at risk of major complications after endoscopic removal of foreign bodies. The nomogram established in this study can be conveniently used to assess patients and develop treatment plans for the management of foreign body ingestion.