Nomogram for predicting swallowing recovery in patients after dysphagic stroke.

Abstract

To date, variables predicting the recovery of dysphagia in patients after dysphagic stroke have not been well defined. However, despite the difficulties in predicting and understanding the dysphagia recovery trajectory, its significance for stroke care cannot be understated. This study aims to identify the factors for functional swallowing recovery and develop nomograms that predict dysphagia recovery after stroke. The demographic, neurological, and swallowing characteristics were compared between patients who recovered from dysphagia and those who did not. Then, the factors with P <.1 through comparison were enrolled in the multivariable logistic regression analysis to build a prediction model. A nomogram was also built to provide a quantitative tool. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the prediction model were assessed by using the C index, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis. Predictors in the early-phase (T7) prediction nomogram included age, Functional Oral Intake Scale (FOIS), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NHISS), hemispheric stroke, and brainstem stroke on admission. In the middle phase (T14), predictors included age, FOIS, and NHISS on admission. In the late phase (T30), predictors included age, FOIS, NHISS, bilateral stroke, and body mass index on admission. The C index for the day 7, day 14, and day 30 prediction nomograms were 0.847 (95% CI, 0.804-0.884), 0.817 (95% CI, 0.772-0.857), and 0.786 (95% CI, 0.739-0.829). These novel nomograms predicting dysphagia recovery after ischemic stroke are discriminative and well calibrated and could be used to guide enteralnutrition decision making, rehabilitation plans, and individualized care.