Nomogram for predicting severe abdominal pain after initial conventional transarterial chemoembolisation for hepatocellular carcinoma: a retrospective study

Abstract

Transarterial chemoembolisation (TACE) is a standard therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, adverse events, including abdominal pain, are common. This study aimed to investigate and verify the feasibility of a nomogram model to predict severe abdominal pain after first conventional TACE (cTACE) among patients with HCC. Patients with HCC treated with cTACE between October 28, 2019, and August 5, 2022, at a single centre were enrolled (n = 216). Patients were divided into training and validation cohorts (ratio, 7:3). A visual analogue scale score between 7 and 10 was considered severe abdominal pain. A total of 127 (58.8%) patients complained of severe abdominal pain after first cTACE treatment. The nomogram considered age and tumour number and size. The nomogram demonstrated good discrimination, with a C-index of 0.749 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.617, 0.881). Further, the C-index in the validation cohort reached 0.728 (95% CI 0.592, 0.864). The calibration curves showed ideal agreement between the prediction and real observations, and the nomogram decision curve analysis performed well. The nomogram model can provide an accurate prediction of severe abdominal pain in patients with HCC after first cTACE, aiding in the personalization of pain management and providing novel insights into hospital nursing.