Nomogram for predicting overall survival in Chinese triple-negative breast cancer patients after surgery

Abstract

There are few nomograms for the prognosis of Chinese patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). To construct and validate a nomogram for overall survival (OS) of Chinese TNBC patients after surgery. This study used the data of SEER*stat 8.3.5 and selected Chinese patients with TNBC operated on between 2010 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used. The identified variables were integrated to form a predictive nomogram and risk stratification model; it was assessed with C-indexes and calibration curves. The median and maximal OS of the 336 patients was 39 and 83 mo, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed that age (P = 0.043), marital status (P = 0.040), tumor localization (P = 0.030), grade (P = 0.035), T classification (P = 0.012), and N classification (P = 0.002) were independent prognostic factors. The six variables were combined to construct a 1-, 3- and 5-year OS nomogram. The C-indexes of the nomogram to predict OS were 0.766 and compared to the seventh edition staging system, which was higher (0.766 vs 0.707, P < 0.001). In order to categorize patients into different prognostic groups, a risk stratification model was created. There was a significant difference between the Kaplan-Meier curves of the entire cohort and each disease stage according to the nomogram. The nomogram provided prognostic superiority over the traditional tumor, node and metastasis system. It could help clinicians make individual OS or risk predictions for Chinese TNBC patients after surgery.