Nomogram for predicting distant metastasis of male breast cancer: A SEER population-based study.

Abstract

The main purpose of this study was to build a prediction model for male breast cancer (MBC) patients to predict the possibility of distant metastasis. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to obtain data on patients with MBC. The patients were divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3. The risk variables of distant metastasis in the training set were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. And then we integrated those risk factors to construct the nomogram. The prediction nomogram was further verified in the verification set. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plots, respectively. A total of 1974 patients (1381 in training set and 593 in validation set) were eligible for final inclusion, of whom 149 (7.55%) had distant metastasis at the diagnosed time. Multivariate logistic regression analyses presented that age, T stage, N stage, and hormone receptor status were independent risk factors for distant metastasis at initial diagnosis of male breast cancer. Finally, the 4 variables were combined to construct the nomogram. The area under the curve values for the nomogram established in the training set and validation set were 0.8224 (95%CI: 0.7796–0.8652) and 0.8631 (95%CI: 0.7937–0.9326), suggesting that the nomogram had good predictive power. The calibration plots illustrated an acceptable correlation between the prediction by nomogram and the actual observation, as the calibration curve was closed to the diagonal bisector line. An easy-to-use nomogram, being proven to be with reliable discrimination ability and accuracy, was established to predict distant metastasis for male patients with breast cancer using the easily available risk factors.