Noise analysis of irregularly sampled VLBI position time series using maximum likelihood estimation

Abstract

Identification of the optimal noise model for space geodetic time series is crucial for various studies in geodynamics and geodesy. However, the position time series of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) are typically irregularly sampled. There is no clear evidence from previous studies to support that the Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) method can allow for stable and reliable noise estimates for irregularly sampled data. To address this issue, we first conducted simulation studies. Results indicate that when the number of data points in the VLBI position time series reaches 300, reliable noise estimations result can be obtained using the MLE. We also found that the higher proportion of white noise a station has, the less influences the data gaps would be on noise estimations. Second, we apply the MLE to investigate the noise properties in the 32 VLBI position time series. About 12 (37.5%) stations exhibit pure white noise, and 15 (46.9%) stations display a combination of white noise and flicker noise. For these stations, the median amplitudes of white noise in the East, North, and Up components are 3.9, 4.6, and 11.9 mm, respectively. Moreover, white and flicker noise amplitudes show a latitude-dependent pattern, with stations located in the southern hemisphere and low latitudes (0-30°N) in the northern hemisphere exhibiting higher noise amplitudes. The remaining approximately 5 stations (15.6%) have the optimal noise model of power law noise with the mean spectral index of −0.32, −0.36, and −0.53 for the East, North, and Up components, respectively. Simply assuming pure white noise can significantly affect velocity uncertainty estimates when compared to using a noise model that includes colored noise. The velocity uncertainty will be underestimated by a factor of 2.9 on average. The effects of a small proportion of colored noise in VLBI data on velocity uncertainty estimation can be ignored only when the time series length exceeds 32.6 years. Additionally, the choice of different noise model can lead to a maximum difference of 0.84 mm for the annual signal of the Up component.