Abstract
The NOAA National Ocean Service’s (NOS) Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System (NGOFS) became operational in March 2012. Implemented with the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) as its core three-dimensional oceanographic circulation model, NGOFS produces a real-time nowcast (−6 h to zero) and six-hourly, two-day forecast guidance for water levels and three-dimensional currents, water temperature and salinity over the northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf. Designed as a regional scale prediction system, NGOFS lacks sufficient spatial coverage and/or resolution to fully resolve hydrodynamic features in critical seaports and estuaries. To overcome this shortcoming and better support the needs of marine navigation, emergency response, and environmental management, two FVCOM-based, high-resolution, estuary-scale nested forecast modeling systems, namely the Northwest and Northeast Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast Systems (NWGOFS and NEGOFS), have been developed through one-way nesting in NGOFS. Using the atmospheric forecast guidance from the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)/NWS (National Weather Services)’ North American Mesoscale (NAM) Forecast System, US Geological Survey (USGS) river discharge observations, and the NGOFS water level, current, water temperature and salinity as the surface, river, and open ocean boundary forcing, respectively, a six-month model hindcast for the period October 2010–March 2011 has been conducted. Modeled water levels, currents, salinity and water temperature are compared with observations using the NOS standard skill assessment software. Skill assessment scores indicated that NWGOFS and NEGOFS demonstrate improvement over NGOFS. The NWGOFS and NEGOFS are under real-time nowcast/forecast test and evaluation by NOS’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). The forecast systems are scheduled to be implemented operational on NOAA Weather & Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS) in June 2014.
Highlights
The northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coastal circulation results from a combination of astronomical tides, GOM deep water eddies impinging against the shelf, the local atmospheric wind stress and heat flux, and riverine discharges through a vast stretch of wetlands and marshes into the coastal waters
For NWGOFS, the nesting boundary node near National Ocean Service (NOS)’s National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON) gage locations Port O’Connor, Texas (NOS ID 8773701) on the west and Freshwater Canal Locks, Louisiana (8766072) on east were selected as the nested boundary locations (Figure 2)
The nested NOGFS models NWGOFS and NEGOFS have been developed at NOS to provide days short term nowcast and forecast guidance of water level, current velocity, salinity and temperature over the model grid domain of the northwest and northeast Gulf of Mexico inland and coastal
Summary
The northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coastal circulation results from a combination of astronomical tides, GOM deep water eddies impinging against the shelf, the local atmospheric wind stress and heat flux, and riverine discharges through a vast stretch of wetlands and marshes into the coastal waters. With the advancement of oceanographic knowledge through start-of-the-art observational systems of the atmosphere, surface water, and deep water, each study represents successive steps in an understanding the circulation of the GOM. These studies indicated the coastal shelf circulation in the northern GOM has a large degree of variance in both space and time. Houston/Galveston Bay, and the proposed Matagoda Bay (Figure 1) In conjunction with these real-time local observing networks, NOS has been tasked to develop numerical oceanographic prediction systems to accurately provide short-term forecast guidance of water levels, currents, salinity, and water temperature to primarily support safe and efficient maritime navigation in this region. The NEGOFS covers Mobile Bay, Pascagoula, and Gulfport PORTS® (Figure 1)
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