No retreat from the heat: temperature-related risk of violent assault is increased by being inside

Abstract

ABSTRACT Studies finding an association between increasing temperature and violent crime have largely overlooked the potential effect modification of crime location. This study analysed 13 years of reported violent crime to investigate if there is a relationship between daily ambient temperature and crime type (domestic, non-domestic and sexual assault), and how this differs by whether the crime occurred inside or out. We found that predicted daily counts of domestic violence increased with temperature, and this association was greater for locations inside. Non-domestic assaults also increased with higher temperature, however when compared by location the incidents that occurred outside rose to around 30°C then plateaued while inside the risk continued to rise. Sexual assault peaked and then declined at around 30°C in inside and outside locations. The findings support the development of prevention and preparedness strategies by considering how the complex drivers behind the temperature–aggression association are modified by the location where it occurred.