No further increase in the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma in Sweden

Abstract

Since 1970, the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has increased rapidly in Western populations, whereas the incidences of gastric cardia and gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma have increased moderately and declined, respectively. The Swedish Cancer Register and Total Population Register provided opportunities for a valid update of incidence trends of these tumors including the year 2008. Joinpoint regression was used to assess any shifts in trends with calendar time. The esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence reached a peak in 2005, and then showed a decrease. During the period 2001-2008, the joinpoint regression analysis indicates a virtually stable incidence (annual percentage increase 1.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] -2.7 to 5.1). The cardia adenocarcinoma incidence has slightly decreased after 1990 (annual percentage decrease -1.0, 95% CI -1.6 to -0.3). The decreasing incidence of gastric non-cardia adenocarcinoma has continued steadily during recent years (annual percentage decrease -4.9 (95% CI -5.2 to -4.7). Thus, an encouraging break in the rising incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has been seen in Sweden since 2005, whereas the corresponding incidences of gastric cardia and non-cardia adenocarcinoma have been stable and decreasing, respectively.