No evidence of winter warming in Eurasia following large, low-latitude volcanic eruptions during the Last Millennium

Abstract

Abstract We critically reexamine the question of whether volcanic eruptions cause surface warming over Eurasia in winter, in the light of recent modeling studies that have suggested internal variability may overwhelm any forced volcanic response, even for the very largest eruptions during the Common Era. Focusing on the Last Millennium, we combine model output, instrumental observations, tree-ring records, and ice cores to build a new temperature reconstruction that specifically targets the boreal winter season. We focus on 20 eruptions over the Last Millennium with volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSI) larger than the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We find that only 7 of these 20 large events are followed by warm surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia in the first post-eruption winter. Examining the 13 events that show cold post-eruption anomalies we find no correlation between the amplitude of winter cooling and VSSI mass. We also find no evidence that the North Atlantic Oscillation is correlated with VSSI in winter, a key element of the proposed mechanism through which large low-latitude eruptions might cause winter warming over Eurasia. Furthermore, by inspecting individual eruptions rather than combining events into a superposed epoch analysis, we are able to reconcile our findings with those of previous studies. Analysis of two additional paleoclimatic datasets corroborates the lack of post-eruption Eurasian winter warming. Our findings, covering the entire Last Millennium, confirm the findings of most recent modeling studies, and offer important new evidence that large low-latitude eruptions are not, in general, followed by significant surface wintertime warming over Eurasia.