Abstract

With urbanization process acceleration in China, traffic travel among cities becomes increasing, and traffic mode split is the key link of traffic passenger flow forecast among cities. In this paper, the concept of high-density town cluster was proposed to analyze the characteristics of development, population composition, and traffic facilities among high-density town cluster. Based on applicability analysis of aggregate model and disaggregate model, survey content of revealed preference (RP) and stared preference (SP), and traffic mode hierarchical division according to average speed, then NL disaggregate model among high-density town cluster was constructed. NL model which was parameter calibrated and validated with DongGuan citizen travel investigation data in 2009 was used to analyze the trend of traffic mode split. The result shows that high-density town cluster, such as DongGuan, are establishing a three-dimensional travel mode set, including high-speed rail, intercity rail, suburban rail, urban rail transit, intercity express bus, car, taxi, and common public transport. With the network of multi-mode rail transit further improving, ratio on choosing the traffic mode of multi-mode rail transit, such as high-speed rail, intercity rail, suburban rail, urban rail transit, increases dramatically.

Highlights

  • Years, with the number of traveling among cities, such as Pearl River Delta Area, Yangtze River Delta Area, Bohai Area, and so on, increased dramatically, and the travelers require that the transportation should be rapid, comfortable, and safe

  • Based on development pattern and space distance, high-density town cluster is defined of region where cities and towns rapid develop simultaneously, distances among the centers of cities are less than 100 kilometers, travel time by freeway among the centers of cities are less than one hour, distances between adjoin towns are less than 10 kilometers, travel time by urban aerial roads between adjoin towns are less than 10 minutes, are formed by different town clusters, the functions of which are related to each other, and connect frequently

  • NL model is chosen to establish the mode of intercity travel mode choice in high-density town cluster

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Summary

Introduction

With the number of traveling among cities, such as Pearl River Delta Area, Yangtze River Delta Area, Bohai Area, and so on, increased dramatically, and the travelers require that the transportation should be rapid, comfortable, and safe. Traditional train, bus, and taxi don’t meet the requirement mentioned before. On this condition, the planning and construction of high speed train, intercity rail transit, and suburb railway accelerate dramatically. According to these terms’ definition, the high-density town cluster is defined in this paper.

Advances in Intelligent Transportation System and Technology
Forecasting Model Choice
Model Established
Determining of Choice Branch
MNL model
Influence Factor Model of Utility Value
Traffic Mode Hierarchical Division
Parameter Calibration
Mode Validation and Trend Analysis
Short distance vehicles
Official Intercity
Trend Analysis
Intercity bus
Conclusion
Full Text
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