Nitrous oxide variability and predictability in the tropics using statistical analysis

Abstract

Among the three most powerful long-lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) present in the atmosphere and affected by human activities, N2O has the longest atmospheric lifetime than the rest and a large global warming potential. Its impact is about 300 times that of CO2 which also has a life time next to it amongst these three long-lived gases. The presence of N2O has the potential effect of raising global temperature because of its ability to trap heat. Hence, it is necessary to predict its future concentration so as to know its possible trend. The analyses of these concentrations were carried out using descriptive statistics. The moving average was used in smoothening out its fluctuations in order for the trend to become apparent and the regression analysis was utilized in fitting the appropriate equations for predicting its concentration. The mean annual concentration value of this gas for the period 1998 – 2012 at the various stations consideredwas 319.09±0.63ppb with an average range of 11.98±0.23ppb.The comparison of the actual data with the modeled data showed high correlation coefficients and the polynomial function of order 1 (linear equation) is sufficient in predicting the concentrations of this gas if the current trend should continue.