Nitrogen deposition and plant biodiversity: past, present, and future

Abstract

Reactive nitrogen (N) deposition from intensive agricultural and industrial activity has been identified as the third greatest threat to global terrestrial biodiversity, after land‐use and climate change. While the impacts of N deposition are widely acknowledged, their magnitude is poorly quantified. We combine N deposition models, empirical response functions, and vegetation mapping to simulate the effects of N deposition on plant species richness from 1900 to 2030, using the island of Great Britain as a case study. We find that current species richness values – when averaged across five widespread habitat types – are approximately one‐third less than without N deposition. Our results suggest that currently expected reductions in emissions will achieve no more than modest increases in species richness by 2030, and that emissions cuts based on habitat‐specific “critical loads” may be an inefficient approach to managing N deposition for the protection of plant biodiversity. The effects of N deposition on biodiversity are severe and are unlikely to be quickly reversed.