Ningaloo Niño/Niña in CMIP6 Models: Characteristics, Mechanisms, and Climate Impacts

Abstract

AbstractAs a dominant climate mode of the southeast Indian Ocean, Ningaloo Niño/Niña has paramount impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems. Using outputs from the latest phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we have systematically evaluated the simulation of Ningaloo Niño/Niña in the state‐of‐the‐art coupled models. Eighteen out of 28 CMIP6 models well reproduce the spatial pattern and seasonality of Ningaloo Niño/Niña, whereas the simulated amplitudes show large spread across the models. Main processes of the oceanic and atmospheric El Niño‐Southern Oscillation teleconnections and the coastal Bjerknes feedback are successfully captured by most of the CMIP6 models, but their uncertainties in the simulation are responsible for the inter‐model difference in amplitude. The CMIP6 models are also skillful in reproducing the regional climate impacts of Ningaloo Niño/Niña. Compared to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, a larger fraction of models in CMIP6 well reproduce the Ningaloo Niño/Niña, which provides a good hope for projecting its future changes.