Abstract
This paper is conducted to answer whether the performance of economic growth is significantly influenced by the exchange rate and economic openness in Indonesia. To answer this question, we apply a multiple regression model for 48 annual data for the period 1971 to 2019. We used index numbers to measure economic growth performance based on references from the ICRG Risk Rating System, PRS Group, in assessing macroeconomic performance around the world. We also differentiate the exchange rate variable into LNER t and LNER t-1 to determine whether there is a difference between the two in affecting economic performance growth performance. The results showed that LNER t had a negative effect on economic growth, while economic openness and LNER t-1 had a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's economic growth performance. The recommendation of this study is that increasing trade competitiveness is important in the long run, especially in order to maximize the benefits of economic openness. Then, it is also important to ensure that future exchange rate volatility does not have a negative impact on economic growth performance
Highlights
Artikel ini untuk menjawab apakah kinerja pertumbuhan ekonomi dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh nilai tukar dan keterbukaan ekonomi di Indonesia
The results showed that LNERt had a negative effect on economic growth, while economic openness and LNERt-1 had a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's economic growth performance
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter
Summary
Pada gambar di atas selama periode penelitian, secara umum terlihat bahwa indeks kinerja pertumbuhan PDB riil Indonesia masih menunjukkan kinerja yang sangat tinggi, sehubungan nilai poin indeks kinerja pertumbuhannya berada di atas 8 poin atau jika dikonversi dalam nilai pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah sebesar di atas 2,50 persen. Jika dicermati secara seksama dari sisi kualitas data, maka akan terlihat bahwa meski selama 19 tahun, kinerja pertumbuhan PDB riil berada dalam kategori kinerja sangat tinggi, namun sejak tahun 2013 atau dalam 7 tahun terakhir, nilai poin kinerjanya senantiasa stagnan di angka 9,5 poin dan 9,0 poin. Yaitu dalam kurun waktu 2007 hingga 2011, poin kinerja pertumbuhan PDB riil yang dapat dicapai sebagian besar 10 poin, atau dengan kata lain Pemerintah pada periode tersebut mampu mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 6 persen ke atas. Kinerja pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam artikel ini akan dihitung menggunakan ukuran indeks, dengan merujuk kepada pedoman penghitungan indeks kinerja pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagaimana yang telah dilakukan oleh ICRG Risk Rating System, PRS Group (1999)
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