Abstract
Aims: Millet has the potential to become important components of intensive agriculture especially in Nigeria, hence the need to explore its food security and economic diversification potentials. Methods and Results: Time series data that spanned from 1961 to 2018 sourced from FAO database, covering production, area and yield were used to examine the food security trend of millet production in Nigeria. The collected data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The finding showed poor performance in the production of millet as growth was driven by area other than productivity. It was observed that price volatility triggered high fluctuation in area and yield, thus causing high instability in the production of millet. In addition, production risk and uncertainty were the major sources of production variability between the regime shifts. It was observed that surge in the average production level between regime shifts owed majorly to area expansion. The empirical evidence showed that the farmers decision on current acreage allocation for millet was governed by both institutional and non-institution factors. Furthermore, the forecast showed that the country will be faced with millet food insecurity to battle with; as critical reliance on millet importation will expose the country to risks from global food price spikes and shortages; and geopolitical and environmental threats. Conclusions: Thus, it can be inferred that the growth performance of millet production is not favorable. In lieu, the study recommends the need for long-term domestic self-sufficiency in millet production capable of feeding the country’s population as a key strategic food goal. Significance and Impact of the Study: Therefore, the outcome of this research will serve as leverage/ leeway for policy makers towards addressing the challenges of millet production for food security, stimulating livestock production-animal feed and foreign earning viz. exportation to the abundant arid regions in the sub-Saharan Africa.
Highlights
Millets are a group of highly variable small-seeded grasses which are widely grown around the world as cereal crops or food grains for human food and fodder
The specific goals were to examine the trend in production and the growth pattern of millet production; to determine the extent and magnitude of production instability; to determine the sources of production change; to determine the factors influencing the decision to allocate the acreage of farmers; and to forecast the trend in production of millet in Nigeria
Trend and growth patterns of millet production The diagrammatical framework showed the production trend to be marked by marginal fluctuating changes which majorly owed to marginal fluctuating changes in area during the pre-SAP period
Summary
Nijerya'da gıda savunması ve ekonomik çeşitlendirme için darı üretiminin potansiyellerinden yararlanmak. Aims: Millet has the potential to become important components of intensive agriculture especially in Nigeria, the need to explore its food security and economic diversification potentials. MethodsandResults: Time series data that spanned from 1961 to 2018 sourced from FAO database, covering production, area and yield were used to examine the food security trend of millet production in Nigeria. The finding showed poor performance in the production of millet as growth was driven by area other than productivity. It was observed that price volatility triggered high fluctuation in area and yield, causing high instability in the production of millet. It was observed that surge in the average production level between regime shifts owed majorly to area expansion. Atıf / Citation: Sadiq MS, Singh IP, Ahmad MM (2021) Harnessing the potentials of millet production for food defense and economic diversification in Nigeria.
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