Nighttime light satellite images reveal uneven socioeconomic development along China's land border

Abstract

China shares its board with one developed and thirteen developing countries. A timely, precise, and efficient socioeconomic study of border regions is vital for evaluating political problems and identifying potential economic prospects. Usually, conventional socioeconomic statistical data suffer from significant time lags and unequal statistical scales. This study utilized the random forest model to establish a connection between satellite-derived nighttime light data and the improved human development index (IHDI). The relationship was then applied to predict the IHDI, and differences in its strength, trend, and change pattern by bordering statistical units from 2000 to 2020 were evaluated. Our findings indicate that China's administrative units (AUCs) are more developed and have a greater development trend than their neighbors (AUNs). Except for the Tibet Autonomous Region, all AUCs are spatially more developed than AUNs, with the discrepancy widening between 2000 and 2020. Socioeconomic changes in AUCs predominantly exhibit a forward-leaping development pattern, which may be represented by a logarithmic (53%) or sigmoid (22.6%) function, whereas AUNs' socioeconomic changes exhibit either a late-leaping exponential (34.2%) or static development (18.6%) trend. The IHDI values in AUCs exhibit greater disparity as measured by the Theil index, than the AUNs, primarily due to the natural environment, resource availability, and development policies. In less developed regions, harsh natural surroundings, temperatures, and scarce natural resources hinder socioeconomic growth.