Nigerian Newspapers’ Publication of Predicted and the Actual Outcome of 2015 Presidential Election in Nigeria: Lessons for Africa

Abstract

Media irrespective of geography and ownership structure owe more than sanctimonious responsibility to objectivity in the performance of their roles. Predictions of electoral outcomes in Nigeria, whether empirical or otherwise derived, have an intrinsic commonality; notably, non-empirically conducted research by The Nation newspaper on the outcome of the elections have evinced higher level of internal and external validity than the empirically conducted predictions. The objective of this chapter consequently is to compare the predicted outcome of both The Nation newspaper and Kimberly & Associates’ and juxtapose them with the actual outcome of the 2015 presidential elections in Nigeria, thereby showcasing the lessons for other African states. The indicator for comparison between The Nation and Kimberly and Associates is the level of accuracy in the predicted and actual outcome in the 36 states and across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. The chapter relied on published results of investigative researches conducted on both predicted and actual outcome of 2015 Presidential election result by both The Nation and Kimberly & Associates, using descriptive statistics. Findings revealed that the level of accuracy of The Nation newspaper’s non-empirically predicted outcome when compared with the actual result was higher than that of the Kimberly & Associates. The chapter, therefore, recommends that future attempts by media researchers in the course of predicting electoral outcomes must essentially adopt field investigation/field research in the form of observation, structured/in-depth interview, and key informant interview as used by The Nation in predicting Nigeria’s 2015 presidential election.